I write this as a "heads up" to the new investor, especially those who intend to start investing money in the stock market in 2015 or 2016. We're all a new investor sometime and all subject to the same misconceptions, illusions and mistakes when we start investing money in the stock market. Here's a simple guide to investing money as the market unfolds in 2015 and 2016.
If you start investing money in the stock market before you have a handle on such things as P-E ratios, dividend yields and past market cycles consider yourself a new investor. Ditto, if you don't feel that you really understand the big picture - even if you have been an investor for several years (like millions of other folks). I write this as a former financial planner who worked with many uninformed (new) investors... because most people who start investing money in the stock market do it uninformed.
Many new investors get excited when the market makes new highs. If you were excited by the new highs in the market in 2014, take a deep breath and push your emotions (like greed) aside before investing money in the stock market in 2015 and beyond. Don't be afraid of "missing out" because stocks are NOT cheap (P-E ratios are not low) while dividend yields ARE low. There are few bargains around. After more than five consecutive good years the "herd instinct" has taken over on Wall Street. If you became a new investor since the financial crisis ended in early 2009, you have probably been misled by what you've seen.
You may now be a member of the herd and overly optimistic about the future. That's what often happens to new investors who start investing money in the stock market at or near a market low. Those who "luck out" with timing their first time out are vulnerable to future market shock. "It's better to be lucky than good" is likely to work for the new investor only once. Don't push your luck in 2015 and beyond.
Market cycles have always been a major part of the game, and few new investors really have a perspective on market trends. The newbie who gets lucky often credits his or her success to stock picking. The simple truth is that it's easy pickings if you start investing money in the stock market when a new uptrend sweeps prices higher. On the other hand, if you start investing money when a major downward trend takes hold, your odds of taking big losses are about 99%.
To succeed over the long term you need to take emotion out of the picture and keep an eye on the horizon in search of EXTREMES. For 2015 and beyond, there are a couple of extremes that could signal a change in trend from up to down. How long can interest rates be stuck at record lows while the stock market rallies to new highs? Lower interest rates have traditionally been the key to stimulating the economy and sending corporate sales, profits and stock prices higher. Presently at near record lows, rates can't go much lower. This might not be a good time to start investing money in the stock market.
Forget about optimism and pessimism. Rising interest rates hurt corporate sales and profits; and lower profits can make P-E ratios skyrocket overnight. In other words, stock PRICES vs. EARNINGS (P-E ratios) can rise quickly when profits fall, making stocks expensive. If you are a new investor beware: now is probably not a good time to start investing money in the stock market. It is a good time to learn.
Today's extremes: extremely low interest rates, and almost six straight years of rising prices without a major change in trend. A significant uptrend in interest rates will make new investors out of all but the old heads (like myself). That's what makes 2015 and 2016 scary. That's why you might want to think twice before you start investing money in the stock market in 2015 and beyond. Learn now. Later, when prices are low and the uninformed herd is selling, is when you want to start investing money in the stock market.
If you start investing money in the stock market before you have a handle on such things as P-E ratios, dividend yields and past market cycles consider yourself a new investor. Ditto, if you don't feel that you really understand the big picture - even if you have been an investor for several years (like millions of other folks). I write this as a former financial planner who worked with many uninformed (new) investors... because most people who start investing money in the stock market do it uninformed.
Many new investors get excited when the market makes new highs. If you were excited by the new highs in the market in 2014, take a deep breath and push your emotions (like greed) aside before investing money in the stock market in 2015 and beyond. Don't be afraid of "missing out" because stocks are NOT cheap (P-E ratios are not low) while dividend yields ARE low. There are few bargains around. After more than five consecutive good years the "herd instinct" has taken over on Wall Street. If you became a new investor since the financial crisis ended in early 2009, you have probably been misled by what you've seen.
You may now be a member of the herd and overly optimistic about the future. That's what often happens to new investors who start investing money in the stock market at or near a market low. Those who "luck out" with timing their first time out are vulnerable to future market shock. "It's better to be lucky than good" is likely to work for the new investor only once. Don't push your luck in 2015 and beyond.
Market cycles have always been a major part of the game, and few new investors really have a perspective on market trends. The newbie who gets lucky often credits his or her success to stock picking. The simple truth is that it's easy pickings if you start investing money in the stock market when a new uptrend sweeps prices higher. On the other hand, if you start investing money when a major downward trend takes hold, your odds of taking big losses are about 99%.
To succeed over the long term you need to take emotion out of the picture and keep an eye on the horizon in search of EXTREMES. For 2015 and beyond, there are a couple of extremes that could signal a change in trend from up to down. How long can interest rates be stuck at record lows while the stock market rallies to new highs? Lower interest rates have traditionally been the key to stimulating the economy and sending corporate sales, profits and stock prices higher. Presently at near record lows, rates can't go much lower. This might not be a good time to start investing money in the stock market.
Forget about optimism and pessimism. Rising interest rates hurt corporate sales and profits; and lower profits can make P-E ratios skyrocket overnight. In other words, stock PRICES vs. EARNINGS (P-E ratios) can rise quickly when profits fall, making stocks expensive. If you are a new investor beware: now is probably not a good time to start investing money in the stock market. It is a good time to learn.
Today's extremes: extremely low interest rates, and almost six straight years of rising prices without a major change in trend. A significant uptrend in interest rates will make new investors out of all but the old heads (like myself). That's what makes 2015 and 2016 scary. That's why you might want to think twice before you start investing money in the stock market in 2015 and beyond. Learn now. Later, when prices are low and the uninformed herd is selling, is when you want to start investing money in the stock market.
Written by Djelloul
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